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The upcoming US presidential election presents various scenarios impacting the economy and markets. A Trump victory could lead to significant fiscal expansion and potential tariff increases, while a Harris win may result in a status quo with limited fiscal changes. Regardless of the outcome, a healthy macroeconomic backdrop suggests that equities are likely to perform well, with international markets benefiting from reduced tariff risks.
The upcoming US election could significantly impact markets, with a Republican Sweep likely leading to fiscal expansion and increased tariffs, while a Harris presidency with divided government may maintain the status quo. A Blue Sweep, though unlikely, could widen the deficit but also raise corporate taxes, affecting US equities. Overall, regardless of the outcome, a healthy macroeconomic backdrop suggests risk assets may perform well into 2024.
The upcoming US Presidential election presents various scenarios impacting the economy and markets. A Republican Sweep could lead to significant fiscal expansion and potential inflationary pressures, while a Harris win with divided government may maintain the status quo, resulting in neutral fiscal impulses. Regardless of the outcome, a healthy macro backdrop suggests that global equities are likely to perform well into 2024, with emerging markets potentially benefiting from reduced tariff risks.
Currency traders in Mexico are preparing for significant fluctuations in the peso following the upcoming US election, with the outcome between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump appearing uncertain. The peso's one-month implied volatility recently spiked above 22.43%, marking its highest level since April 2020. Having already declined 15% this year, the peso is particularly vulnerable to potential tariffs from Trump.
Vice President Kamala Harris has remained silent on the Democrats' initiative to tax unrealized investment gains, raising questions about her commitment to this key aspect of the party's tax strategy for billionaires. She has already indicated a willingness to scale back President Biden's capital gains tax policy and is not providing details on her support for other tax proposals aimed at the wealthy.
The Biden-Harris administration's policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, are driving a manufacturing boom in the U.S., particularly in the solar industry. The Department of the Treasury confirmed that solar ingot and wafer production facilities qualify for a 25% investment tax credit, aiming to establish domestic production capabilities. This initiative addresses critical supply chain gaps and is expected to create jobs while enhancing energy independence.
Warren Buffett has expressed concern over impersonators misusing his name to endorse investment products and political candidates, prompting Berkshire Hathaway to issue a statement clarifying that he does not endorse such entities. He emphasized that any claims of his endorsements, especially on social media, are fraudulent, and he is particularly worried about the rise of deep fakes. Buffett's actions were partly triggered by a fake political endorsement on Instagram, a platform he does not use.
The US elections on November 5, 2024, featuring candidates like Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, are poised to significantly influence both the US economy and Switzerland, according to Sandro Merino, Chief Investment Officer at BKB. Additionally, Wacker & Schwob AG in Läufelfingen is participating in the Basel Autumn Fair for the 96th time, showcasing its Käskiecheli.
Extreme tariffs proposed by Donald Trump could disrupt disinflation efforts and lead to higher U.S. interest rates, according to Tim Adams, head of the Institute of International Finance. He warned that while some inflationary impacts might be absorbed in the short term, the overall economic package could exert upward pressure on prices. As Trump positions himself as a change candidate focused on protectionism, analysts express concerns about his potential isolationist policies compared to his opponent, Kamala Harris, who is expected to engage more with the global community.
Housing affordability is a critical issue for voters, with millions unable to buy homes or rent suitable apartments. A significant shortfall of 1 to 4 million homes has led to bidding wars, pushing the median sales price of existing homes to a record $426,900, while higher mortgage rates, peaking at nearly 8%, have sidelined many potential buyers.
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